CEST2025

Land cover change (LULC) in the Atlánticas Islands of Galicia (NW Spain) is reshaping biodiversity and local livelihoods. We apply a Temporal Spatial Fusion Network (TSFN) to hindcast 2015–2020 and forecast 2020–2040 land use and cover under 3 policy scenarios: Benchmark (BS), Development Priority (DPS) and Ecological Priority (EPS). TSFN reaches κ 0.99 in BS, κ 0.97 in DPS and κ 0.99 in EPS, outperforming an ANN-CA baseline at κ 0.90. Although the overall mosaic shifts by <5 %, 2 clear trajectories emerge. Cropland, with its food production service, dropped 6 % during 2005–2020 and is set to fall another 14 % by 2040 as scrub expands. Regulating and cultural services also weaken water supply −45 %, waste treatment −43 %, climate regulation −27 %, recreation −40 % and biodiversity protection −38 % in DPS. EPS cushions ≈25 % of these losses but cannot halt cropland decline. By ingesting near real time multispectral data, TSFN provides detailed multiscenario maps that give park managers a solid basis to balance tourism, resource extraction and conservation in this oceanic reserve.